In the second quarter of 2024, the Western Cape emerged as the only South African province with inflation-adjusted growth in residential property prices, as per the Q2 2024 Oobarometer report by Ooba Home Loans. Nationally, both the general and first-time homebuyer purchase prices saw modest nominal year-on-year increases of 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. Despite this nominal growth, the real property price growth remains negative due to the elevated inflation rate of 5.1%.

Ooba Group CEO Rhys Dyer noted a quarter-on-quarter decline in average purchase prices. The national average dropped by 1.4% to R1,458,924, and the first-time homebuyer average decreased by 1.8% to R1,150,238. This conservative purchasing behaviour may be attributed to the upcoming elections and anticipated interest rate cuts.

While Limpopo, Free State, and the Eastern Cape showed nominal year-on-year price increases, Mpumalanga experienced a notable decline. The Western Cape registered the most robust growth, with first-time and repeat homebuyer prices increasing nominally by 7.8% and 6.3% respectively, marking the only real (inflation-adjusted) price increases.

KwaZulu Natal recorded the largest declines in property prices for both first-time and repeat homebuyers, with drops of 6.3% and 7.2% respectively. Johannesburg and the West Rand also saw a decline of 2.6%.

The Western Cape’s property market strength is linked to better service delivery and investment, drawing more millionaires to areas like Cape Town, the Cape Winelands, Garden Route, and Whale Coast. Over the past decade, these regions have seen significant increases in their millionaire populations. Conversely, Johannesburg faces a decline in millionaires due to deteriorating service delivery and political instability, driving population shifts to better-serviced areas.