The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, 19 September, based on a survey of 22 economists. However, Gryphon Asset Management’s Abri du Plessis stands out, predicting a larger 50 basis point cut, arguing that the central bank has room for a more aggressive approach. Du Plessis cites favourable factors such as a stronger rand, lower oil prices, and controlled inflation, which has trended below SARB’s target of 4.5% for the first time since April 2021. The rand has appreciated by 3.3% since the SARB’s last meeting in July, and crude oil prices have dropped 12% due to lower demand from China.

Du Plessis believes SARB should shift focus from inflation control to supporting economic growth. Nevertheless, this view contrasts with the majority of analysts, such as Lourens Pretorius from Matrix Fund Managers, who note that while inflation expectations are moderating, the SARB may lower its inflation target. Pretorius expects a gradual cutting cycle of 100–125 basis points but sees no rush for larger cuts. The central bank may use the current environment to re-anchor inflation expectations, potentially moving towards a long-term target of 3%, which could imply tighter short-term monetary policy despite the need for economic support.